Prescott, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

890
FXUS65 KFGZ 152140
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
240 PM MST Thu May 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warm temperatures continue on Friday with cooler weather
returning over the weekend and into early next week. A storm system
over the weekend and into Monday will bring chances for showers and
gusty southwest winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Friday...Dry conditions continue with near average
temperatures expected. Winds will be primarily out of the west to
southwest and around 5-15 mph with afternoon gusts around 20-25 mph.

Saturday through Monday...A deepening trough across the Great Basin
will bring increasing winds through the weekend. The winds on
Saturday will increase out of the southwest to 10-20 mph with gusts
25-35 mph, increasing to 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph on Sunday.
It will still be fairly dry on Saturday, and with the very dry
conditions across eastern parts of the forecast area, we could see
some fire weather concerns. The strongest winds look to be more over
western and northern areas while the driest conditions look to be
over eastern areas. Still looks marginal but near critical to
critical fire weather conditions are expected. The approaching
trough will drag in some cooler air on Saturday as a cold front
moves through but the colder air arrives for Sunday and Monday as
the trough redevelops on the western side and dives down through the
state. We should also see moisture increasing on Sunday which may
allow for some showers and isolated thunderstorms (even some snow
showers across the higher elevations) late Saturday through Sunday.
Areas along and north of the I-40 corridor look to have the best
chances for a shower. The increasing moisture should help to tamp
down the fire weather concerns. Though the southern portions of
Apache and Navajo counties will still have near critical conditions
as winds will be gustier on Sunday. As the secondary trough pushes
into the region, we will see another influx of moisture to the
region and more chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially
along and north of the Mogollon Rim. An active start to the week for
sure.

As the second trough exits the region late Monday, we should see a
rather quick recovery across the state. Temperatures will warm to
near average by midweek and then 5-10 degrees above average for the
second half of the week. Winds are expected to become lighter
through the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 15/18Z through Friday 16/18Z...VFR conditions
expected. FU layers near area fires. Light and variable winds to
west 5-15 kts. Variable/terrain driven winds return after 02Z
generally 5-10 kts.

OUTLOOK...Friday 16/18Z through Sunday 18/18Z...Mostly VFR
conditions expected through the period. SW winds 5-15 kts on
Friday, becoming stronger on Saturday with gusts near 40 kts.
Overnight winds expected to be light and variable Friday into
Saturday, but likely remain elevated Saturday into Sunday.
-SHRA/-SHSN possible after 06Z Sunday along and NW of a KGCN-KPGA
 line. Showers will extend SE beyond this outlook period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Saturday...Dry conditions
will continue with minimum RH values mostly below 15%. Southwest to
west afternoon winds 10 to 20 MPH today and Friday. Southwest winds
increase on Saturday 15 to 20 mph gusting between 25 and 35 mph.
Near critical fire weather possible Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Cooler, windy, and chances for showers on
Sunday and Monday. Southwest winds 15-20 mph gusting between 30 and
40 mph on Sunday, becoming lighter westerly winds on Monday. Warmer,
less wind, and drier on Tuesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff